Transportation

Forecasting Travel Demand

Northwest Arkansas Travel Demand Model Update (2024)

The Northwest Arkansas Regional Planning Commission (NWARPC) has initiated a comprehensive update to its Travel Demand Model (TDM) in partnership with WSP consultants. This update will support data-driven decision-making for future transportation investments across highway and transit infrastructure. It will also be a critical tool in developing the Forward2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP).

Key Objectives:

Update the regional TDM to reflect current travel patterns and forecast future needs.
Support the development of a fiscally constrained project list—projects expected to be funded with federal aid through 2050, based on funding estimates from ARDOT and MoDOT.
Examine alternative transit improvements for better connectivity among Bentonville, Rogers, Lowell, Springdale, Johnson, and Fayetteville through a Transit Alternative Study (TAS). This study will assess fixed rail, bus rapid transit, and light rail options.

2050 Forecast and Scenarios:

The model will forecast transportation needs for future forecast years 2030, 2040 and 2050 and evaluate three land-use growth scenarios for the 2050 scenario:
- Suburban Growth
- Planned Growth
- Urban Growth
A fiscally unconstrained project list will also be developed, including projects beyond current funding projections.

Background and Model Development History

2004: Initial TDM developed for Washington and Benton Counties using a 2005 base year, with future scenarios for 2010, 2030, and 2035.
2007–2010: Model maintained and used for prioritization, land use, and the 2035 Regional Transportation Plan.
2010: Western Beltway Corridor Study included an expanded model area to include the planning area in McDonald County, MO, and improved model structure/code.
2012: Model update as part of the Transit Alternatives Analysis funded by FTA, using the model to evaluate major transit investments and their potential ridership.
2014: Major model upgrade by Parsons Brinckerhoff:
- Added mode choice component for transit modeling.
- Updated base year to 2010 and extended forecasts to 2020, 2030, and 2040.
- Improved GISDK code and added special generators for key travel generators.
2019–2020: Updated base year to 2018 and added forecasts for 2025, 2035, and 2045.
- WSP enhanced the mode choice model with better transit route coding and validation using the 2018 system-wide origin-destination survey.
- Improved calibration and sensitivity testing for more accurate forecasting. Here are the current model report and an interactive map of the model results for all scenarios can be found here.

Role of the Northwest Arkansas Travel Demand Model:

The TDM helps planners, engineers, and agencies forecast traffic, identify future transportation system needs, and assess the impacts of different land-use and transportation policies. It uses inputs like land use, demographics, and socioeconomic factors to simulate how people and vehicles move throughout the region.

Transportation