Northwest Arkansas Travel Demand Model Update (2024)

In 2025 the Northwest Arkansas Regional Planning Commission (NWARPC) completed a comprehensive update to its Travel Demand Model (TDM) in partnership with WSP consultants. This update supports data-driven decision-making for future transportation investments across highway and transit infrastructure and represents a critical tool in developing the Forward2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP).

Key Objectives:

• Update the regional TDM to reflect current travel patterns and forecast future needs.

• Support the development of a fiscally constrained project list—projects expected to be funded with federal aid through 2050, based on funding estimates from ARDOT and MoDOT.

• Examine alternative transit improvements for better connectivity among Bentonville, Rogers, Lowell, Springdale, Johnson, and Fayetteville through a Transit Alternative Study (TAS). This study will assess fixed rail, bus rapid transit, and light rail options.

2050 Forecast and Scenarios:

• The model forecasts transportation needs for future forecast years 2030, 2040 and  2050 and evaluate three land-use growth scenarios for the 2050 scenario:

  • Suburban Growth

  • Planned Growth

  • Urban Growth

• A fiscally unconstrained project list was incorporated into the model to include projects beyond current funding projections. The Forward 2050 fiscally constrained and unconstrained projects can be viewed on this interactive map.

Timeline and Travel Demand Model Development History

• 2004: Initial TDM developed for Washington and Benton Counties using a 2005 base year, with future scenarios for 2010, 2030, and 2035.

• 2007–2010: Model maintained and used for prioritization, land use, and the 2035 Regional Transportation Plan.

• 2010: Western Beltway Corridor Study included an expanded model area to include the planning area in McDonald County, MO, and improved model structure/code.

• 2012: Model update as part of the Transit Alternatives Analysis funded by FTA, using the model to evaluate major transit investments and their potential ridership.

• 2014: Major model upgrade by Parsons Brinckerhoff:

  • Added mode choice component for transit modeling.

  • Updated base year to 2010 and extended forecasts to 2020, 2030, and 2040.

  • Improved GISDK code and added special generators for key travel generators.

• 2019–2020: Updated base year to 2018 and forecasts for 2025, 2035, and 2045.

  • WSP enhanced the mode choice model with better transit route coding and validation using the 2018 system-wide origin-destination survey.

  • Improved calibration and sensitivity testing for more accurate forecasting. 

• 2024-2025: Updated base year to 2022 and forecasts for 2030, 2040, and  three growth scenarios for 2050.
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Role of the Northwest Arkansas Travel Demand Model:

The TDM helps planners, engineers, and agencies forecast traffic, identify future transportation system needs, and assess the impacts of different land-use and transportation policies. It uses inputs like land use, demographics, and socioeconomic factors to simulate how people and vehicles move throughout the region.